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While we may be sympathetic to that statement, its escalatory implications are clear. We want to see Russia weakened to the point where it can’t do things like invade Ukraine.' 'We want to see Ukraine remain a sovereign country, a democratic country able to protect its sovereign territory. Does anyone doubt Vladimir Putin’s political (and possibly personal) survival rests on winning the first land war in Europe since the 1990s, one that directly involves Nato and Russia?Īnd does anyone doubt that Nato will not rest until its efforts in Ukraine secure Russia’s strategic defeat? That is the obvious interpretation of US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin’s April 2022 statement: In effect, the absence of a possible diplomatic solution provides an added incentive for both sides to climb up the escalation ladder.' 'The maximalist thinking that now prevails in Washington and Moscow gives each side more reason to win on the battlefield so that it can dictate the terms of the eventual peace. PHOTO: SUPPLIED Diplomatic absenceĪs University of Chicago scholar John Mearsheimer wrote in the journal Foreign Affairs in August 2022:

And the repercussions will affect the United States-China relationship, as well as Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. The clear concern now is that the war is escalating. In early May, the Russian government reported that two unmanned aerial vehicles had unsuccessfully attempted to attack the Kremlin. If confirmed, this would be the first strike by Kyiv on a civilian area in Moscow.īBC Russia editor Steve Rosenberg, whose own Moscow home windows shook during the explosions, reported feeling 'as if the hostilities are coming much closer to home now'.īut this was not the first drone attack on Moscow. It is an attempt to weaken Kyiv’s air defences in advance of a much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian forces in Ukraine.Įarlier this week, a suspected Ukrainian drone attack damaged two residential buildings in Moscow. The Russian assault is a sign of weakness. The relentless missile and drone strikes on the capital Kyiv may look like a sign of strength, but appearances can be deceiving. Russia's war with Ukraine is now at a critical turning point. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES The war in Ukraine is escalating and New Zealand will not escape the consequences, writes Associate Prof Nicholas Khoo. Russia’s home front: a damaged Moscow apartment building after the drone attack on May 30.

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